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Population growth
–2000 CE.]] Population growth is the change in a population over time, and can be quantified as the change in the number of individuals of any species in a population using "per unit time" for measurement. In biology, the term population growth is likely to refer to any known organism, but this article deals mostly with the application of the term to human populations in demography. In demography, population growth is used informally for the more specific term population growth rate (see below), and is often used to refer specifically to the growth of the human population of the world. Simple models of population growth include the Malthusian Growth Model and the logistic model. Population growth rate In demographics and ecology, Population growth rate (PGR) is the fractional rate at which the number of individuals in a population increases. Specifically, PGR ordinarily refers to the change in population over a unit time period, often expressed as a percentage of the number of individuals in the population at the beginning of that period. This can be written as the formula: : \mathrm{Growth\ rate} = \frac{(\mathrm{population\ at\ end\ of\ period}\ -\ \mathrm{population\ at\ beginning\ of\ period})} {\mathrm{population\ at\ beginning\ of\ period}} (In the limit of a sufficiently small time period.) The above formula can be expanded to: growth rate = crude birth rate - crude death rate + net immigration rate, or ∆P/P = (B/P) - (D/P) + (I/P) - (E/P), where P is the total population, B is the number of births, D is the number of deaths, I is the number of immigrants, and E is the number of emigrants. This formula allows for the identification of the source of population growth, whether due to natural increase or an increase in the net immigration rate. Natural increase is an increase in the native-born population, stemming from either a higher birth rate, a lower death rate, or a combination of the two. Net immigration rate is the difference between the number of immigrants and the number of emigrants. The most common way to express population growth is as a ratio, not as a rate. The change in population over a unit time period is expressed as a percentage of the population at the beginning of the time period. That is: : \mathrm{Growth\ ratio} = \mathrm{Growth\ rate} \times 100%. A positive growth ratio (or rate) indicates that the population is increasing, while a negative growth ratio indicates the population is decreasing. A growth ratio of zero indicates that there were the same number of people at the two times -- net difference between births, deaths and migration is zero. However, a growth rate may be zero even when there are significant changes in the birth rates, death rates, immigration rates, and age distribution between the two times. Association of Public Health Epidemiologists in Ontario Equivalently, percent death rate = the average number of deaths in a year for every 100 people in the total population. A related measure is the net reproduction rate. In the absence of migration, a net reproduction rate of more than one indicates that the population of women is increasing, while a net reproduction rate less than one (sub-replacement fertility) indicates that the population of women is decreasing. Excessive growth and decline Main articles: Overpopulation and population decline Population exceeding the carrying capacity of an area or environment is called overpopulation. It may be caused by growth in population or by reduction in capacity. Spikes in human population can cause problems such as pollution and traffic congestion, these might be resolved or worsened by technological and economic changes. Conversely, such areas may be considered "underpopulated" if the population is not large enough to maintain an economic system (see population decline). Between these two extremes sits the notion of the optimum population. Human population growth rate (2006 estimate).Population growth rate]] Globally, the growth rate of the human population has been declining since peaking in 1962 and 1963 at 2.20% per annum. In 2009 the estimated annual growth rate was 1.1%.U.S. Census Bureau, January 2010 The CIA World Factbook gives the world annual birthrate, mortality rate, and growth rate (somewhat inconsistently) as 1.986%, 0.837%, and 1.13% respectivelyWorld Factbook -- Rank Order The last one hundred years have seen a rapid increase in population due to medical advances and massive increase in agricultural productivityBBC NEWS | The end of India's green revolution? made possible by the Green Revolution.Food First/Institute for Food and Development PolicyRising food prices curb aid to global poorRecord rise in wheat price prompts UN official to warn that surge in food prices may trigger social unrest in developing countries The actual annual growth in the number of humans fell from its peak of 88.0 million in 1989, to a low of 73.9 million in 2003, after which it rose again to 75.2 million in 2006. Since then, annual growth has declined. In 2009 the human population increased by 74.6 million, and it is projected to fall steadily to about 41 million per annum in 2050, at which time the population will have increased to about 9.2 billion.U.S. Census Bureau, January 2010 Each region of the globe has seen great reductions in growth rate in recent decades, though growth rates remain above 2% in some countries of the Middle East and Sub-Saharan Africa, and also in South Asia, Southeast Asia, and Latin America.U.S. Census Bureau, June 2009 Some countries experience negative population growth, especially in Eastern Europe (mainly due to low fertility rates and emigration). In Southern Africa, growth is slowing due to the high number of HIV-related deaths. Some Western Europe countries might also encounter negative population growth.UN population projections Japan's population began decreasing in 2005 Japan sees biggest population fall See also *Carrying capacity * Demographic economics *Demographic momentum *Demographic transition *Density dependent inhibition *Exponential growth **Compound annual growth rate **Doubling time *Family planning *Fatal Misconception: The Struggle to Control World Population *Fertility rate *Natalism and Antinatalism *Optimum Population *Overcrowding *[[Overpopulation *Population pyramid *Population decline *Immigration *Immigration reduction *Rank mobility index *World population *World population estimates *Zero population growth *Logistic function - concept related to logistic model *Ronald Fisher - who referred to the population growth rate as the Malthusian Parameter *List of countries by fertility rate *List of countries by population growth rate References External links *2008 Essays on Population Growth Blue Planet United - Population Press *World population growth and trends 1950-2050 US Census *UN University annual "State of the Future" report, including updates on Millennium Project goals including balancing global population growth & resources *BBC News - Birth rate 'harms poverty goals' - 08/12/06 *Trend of growth rate with total global population *Visual representation of global population and other statistics * Category:Population ecology Category:Demography Category:Ecological metrics Category:Environmental issues with population